Predicting the Outcome of the EuroMillions Draw
You have to understand that probability theory is simply a reliable guide. Naturally, the expected frequency and the actual frequency will not always match exactly.
You use probability to predict the future outcome of the game to guide you on how to play your game.
For example, if we want to know in advance the outcome of EuroMillions after 2000 draws, we use the same formula for expected frequency:
If we are to predict the outcome of all the odd-even patterns, we will come up with the following prediction table below:
| Pattern | Probability | Estimated Occurrence in 2000 draws |
|---|---|---|
| 3-odd-2-even | 0.3256621797655230 | 651 times |
| 2-odd-3-even | 0.3256621797655230 | 651 times |
| 4-odd-1-even | 0.1492618323925310 | 299 times |
| 4-even-1-odd | 0.1492618323925310 | 299 times |
| All-odd | 0.0250759878419453 | 50 times |
| All-even | 0.0250759878419453 | 50 times |
As a smart EuroMillions player, you don’t want to waste your money on patterns with low probability. That is the power of probability calculation as we apply it in EuroMillions.
As a lotto player, you want to win the jackpot. Therefore, you should stick with either 3-odd-2-even or 2-odd-3-even and forget about the rest of the patterns.
You get the same idea when it comes to low-high patterns. You don’t want to pick a combination whose composition is purely low numbers or strictly high numbers.
However, EuroMillions is not only about low-high or odd-even patterns.
We discuss low-high and odd-even patterns to show that the lottery can be predicted to an extent. But the low-high and odd-even patterns don’t provide the whole picture of the EuroMillions game.
You must understand the EuroMillions game as a whole if you want to win the game. For you to achieve that, you have to understand intricate combinatorial patterns, which is the real key to EuroMillions’ success.
Let’s proceed to discuss what advanced patterns can do to level up your lotto playing strategy.
Combinatorial Patterns in EuroMillions
Let me describe a mathematical method that will catapult you to Euro Million’s success. Deep within the finite sets of EuroMillions numbers are combinatorial patterns that should tell you the best combinations to play and the worst ones to avoid.
The image above describes the complete randomness of a lottery game. It shows that the lotteries are made up of independent random draws that, when put together with time, exhibit a mathematically deterministic behavior given the law of large numbers. See The Visual Analysis of a True Random Lottery with Deterministic Outcome
Let me clarify that we don’t need statistics to determine the best combinations in a lottery game. Statistics is not the right tool to analyze a lottery game.
So if statistical analysis will not provide the best clue, what will?
Well, since the lottery has a finite structure, any question that we ask is a combinatorial and probability problem to solve rather than statistical.
So instead of statistics, we need the concept of combinatorics and probability theory. These two mathematical tools will help predict the general outcome of the EuroMillions game from the perspective of the law of large numbers.
This prediction is possible because a truly random lottery follows the dictate of probability.
Again, we can explain this better from the context of combinatorial patterns.
For example, we can ask:
“What is the probability that the next winning numbers will be 1-2-3-4-5?”
To solve this question combinatorially, we can rephrase the question this way:
“What is the probability that the next winning numbers will be three-odds and two-even numbers?”
Can you see it? Composition matters.
And the composition of a combination is best described using a combinatorial pattern. You can look at combinatorial patterns in many different ways. There are simple patterns and there are Lotterycodex patterns.
We will talk about Lotterycodex patterns later (you don’t want to miss this section).
Let’s discuss the simple ones first.
Knowing the Best and the Worst Combination Should Help
Getting the right composition will surely give you the best shot possible at winning the EuroMillions. Of course, you don’t win any money by matching the pattern. But as a lotto player, you want to play with a sensible strategy and get closer to the winning numbers.
Lotterycodex has no power to change the underlying probability. But Lotterycodex can calculate all the possible choices so you can make the right choice.
The lottery should be fun. But at least be sensible when choosing your combinations and don’t waste your money on worthless combinations.
You don’t increase your chance of winning by choosing the right composition. But when you play the Euromillions, you want to play with the best ratio of success to failure. So don’t waste your money on useless combinations. Lotterycodex patterns are here to guide you on that aspect. (Check out the Lotterycodex Calculators)
I encourage you to check the free guide to learn more about how we calculate everything. Lotterycodex is the only lottery calculator that combines combinatorics and probability calculation in one system.
If you are playing blindly, there’s no guarantee you are not falling into one of these worst patterns in EuroMillions. So I propose that you should incorporate the use of probability theory in your playing strategy.
The benefits are apparent. First, you are confident that you are not wasting your money, and second, you get the best shot at winning the game.
The difference between the best and the worst is so huge. You don’t want to take it for granted.
We don’t say that those combinations under the worst group will not occur. We say that those combinations have the worst ratio of success to failure.
The Huge Difference Between Odds and Probability
Odds and probability are two different terms with two different equations. The difference between the two can be best describe when we study the composition of combinations.
As a lotto player, you don’t have the power to change the underlying probability and you cannot beat the odds of the Euromillions game. But you have the power to know all the possible choices and make the right decision based on those choices.
And making the right choice is possible when you know the difference between odds and probability.
What is the difference?
Probability refers to the measurement that an event will likely occur. And we measure the likelihood by using the formula:
We normally expressed the results of this formula in percentage.
Now, to get the odds, we use this formula instead:
What you get from this formula is a ratio.
So the difference is that the probability is the measurement of chance while the odds are the ratio of success to failure.
In layman’s term, the difference between odds and probability can be described in the following way:
Probability = Chance
Odds = Advantage
That is, you cannot control the probability and you cannot beat the odds, but at least you can choose the best odds and get the best ratio of success to failure.
Let’s consider the combination 2-4-6-8-10. This combination is composed of 5 even numbers with no odd numbers. This combination belongs to the 0-odd-5-even group.
In the Euromillions game, there are 53,130 ways you can combine 5 numbers that are all even numbers and no odd numbers.
Therefore we calculate the odds of a 0-odd-5-even in the following way:
Odds of 5-even-0-odd = 53,130 / 2,065,630
This means that 2-4-6-8-10 and all similar combinations under the group of 0-odd-5-even will give you 2 or 3 opportunities to match the winning combinations for every 100 attempts that you play the Euromillions game.
As you can see, a combination such as 2-4-6-8-10 offers a very low ratio of success.
In comparison, you will have a better ratio of success when you pick a more balanced odd and even numbers.
Let’s prove that.
There are 690,000 ways you can combine numbers of type 3-odd-2-even. If we calculate the odds, we get:
Odds of 3-odd-2-even = 690,000 / 1,428,760
In simple terms, a 3-odd-2-even combination will give you the opportunity to match the winning numbers 32 to 33 times in every 100 attempts that you play the Euromillions game.
If we compare the two classes of combinations, we can see a big difference:
0-odd-5-even VS 3-odd-2-even
| 0-odd-5-even | 3-odd-2-even |
| 2 to 3 opportunities to match the winning numbers in every 100 draws | 32 to 33 opportunities to match the winning numbers in every 100 draws |
| The worst ratio of success | The best ratio of success |
| The worst choice | An intelligent choice |
In a random event like the Euromillions game, making an intelligent choice requires mathematical strategy. We calculate all the possible choices and finally make an intelligent choice.
Remember this: As a EuroMillions player, your objective is to get a better ratio of success to failure. Know all the possible choices and make an intelligent choice.
I explained the details of this mathematical strategy in my article The Lottery and the Winning Formula of Combinatorial Math and Probability Theory.
But to give you a gist of how to make an intelligent choice, let’s dig deeper through these combinatorial patterns below.
